States for which we are currently at least 95% confident in the outcome are considered “safe states” and are colored in the darkest color.
States for which we are less confident in the outcome are more lightly colored based on the direction in which they are currently leaning (either towards Clinton, or towards Trump).
She has led in nine of the last 10 public polls, and her lead appears to be growing.
On average, she's now ahead by about four points in polling averages of the state. As we've previously noted, Mormon antipathy to Trump has contributed to making Arizona a battleground state. Clinton isn't likely to win Utah -- no Democrat has in a presidential race since 1964.
With the state’s Republican lean, he may still win, considering the number of votes already in the bank (268,498 to be exact).
Now that the presidential debates have finished, we've updated our electoral map once again.
Like our last update, this one shifted more states away from Donald Trump.
Looking at some early voting from counties of interest: Yellewstone (slighty R leaning): 56/37 Gianforte Lewis and Clark (normally moderately blue): 52/42 Quist With over 100K votes in, Quist leads 48/46. Map 2 compares the results to last year's Governor's race, where Gov. Map 3 compares the results to last year's House race, where current Interior Secretary Zinke won by about 15%.
With polls closing in a 40 minutes to go, here's a picture of what our format will look like. Tonight, we visit Montana as voters decide whether to fill the at-large vacancy with Democratic candidate Rob Quist or Republican Greg Gianforte.